Because 100 % morale units have been observed losing morale while en-route across long sea voyages, as well as, while crossing enemy territory or garrisoning newly taken territory (yes, the latter could be from attempted revolts), I suspect there is some downward or upward pressure on unit morale based on the morale (or "friendliness") of the province they're in. Not too unlike the travel speed modifier of units in owner, friendly, enemy, or naval terrain.
If this "pressure" exists, I would suspect it has a relatively minor influence, in most cases, but might account for your divergent results being attributed to "some randomness and/or rounding" and, maybe, the 1.33 HP DD disparity.
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