I have an intelligence report that says a neighbouring country's Political Relations is : "War". Presumably this means that the likelihood of this neighbour declaring War on me is high... but how is that determined?
Anyone know 
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Spy reports give you intel on your target's relations with other countries. It shows which country it is referring to and doesn't predict a war coming. Not sure exactly what you're talking about, but you may have missed something on the report. 
The political relationships are best at determining which countries are allies but not in a coalition. For instance, you can see who has map shares with each other as well as if other players are trading resources directly. It’s not a bad idea if you have a partner you don’t completely trust to see who else they are cooperating with. Or to see who all is allied with a player before declaring war.
This came up in a game I had late last year when we realized a coalition partner was in the same alliance as a rival coalition we were considering confronting. We were justifiably a little suspicious of our partner. In the end it was a coincidence they joined the same game. Our partner started in one of the Russian countries, but his alliance mate started as one of the North American countries. It wasn't an issue as we were able to end the game with taking all of Africa, Asia, Australia, and Europe.
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