Sounds about right. What follows below is assuming you play v 1.5.
You don't write about a new capital, but you should definately build a new one in the safest place possible. Doha, as an example, does not sound very safe as it is bordering lots of water and territories you do not own (unless you had conquered Saudi Arabia).
One thing to notice in particular, is the massive drop in manpower when you lose your core provinces. You should boost your build of recruitment centers in the new territories unless you have a very large pool already.
And depending on your manpower situation, you could go guerilla warfare or hit and run. Guerilla is typically militia that you position i favorable terrain where you try to make the enemy run unprepared into them. Militia should be at least lvl 2. Spice it up with a few commandos and exploit the stealth ability of commandos and militia to the max.
Hit and run can be with light vehicles or ships that are fast. I used this to for example capture the enemys capital while his main army was far away on the front line. Of course you cannot hold such gains, but it will damage your enemy badly.
The point of all this is, that if you are in a situation in exile that you cannot overpower your enemy, you can at least damage him. And in the end perhaps enough to make a come back. I did that a few times.
Happy hunting!
